MEZARPOLY

Winning at Hortlak: which habits really make a difference?

26 October 2026 · 5 min read

Everyone has a habit in colour-and-number matching games: some play a wild card straight away, some slap down a +2 at the first chance, some get rid of high numbers first. Which ones actually win? Using the rules engine of Hortlak on Mezarpoly, we played thousands of games, each time changing a single habit of one player.

1. How the experiment worked
2. 1. Keep wild cards for last
3. 2. Save +2 and Into the Grave for the right moment
4. 3. When you play a wild card, pick the colour you hold most
5. Habits that made no difference
6. Is playing first an advantage?
7. How many moves does a game take?
8. Don't forget to say HORTLAK!
9. Summary
10. Method and limits

How the experiment worked

In each experiment, one player at a four-player table changed a single habit; the other three were Hortlak's normal-difficulty bots. Those bots keep wild cards for last, use attack cards when the next player is about to win, and pick the colour they hold most when they play a wild card. The seat of the player with the changed habit rotated from game to game, which evens out the effect of playing first. Each habit was tested over 6,000 games. If nothing changed, every player would win 25% of games.

95% interval: if the experiment were repeated, the result would land this close 95% of the time. Differences smaller than the interval can be explained by luck.

1. Keep wild cards for last

The most expensive habit is playing wild cards (Ghost, Curse +4 and Resurrection) as soon as you get them. A player who does so drops from 24.9% to 17.6%: about 29.3% of the games they would have won are lost.

The reason is simple: a wild card is the only card in your hand that can always be played. In a four-player game, on about a quarter of turns (23.2%) the player has no card that matches the top card and has to draw. A wild card saves you from drawing at those moments. They are also scarce: the 110-card deck has only 10 wild cards, and the chance that a 7-card starting hand holds at least one is 49.7%. The chance of starting with two or more is 12.2%.

2. Save +2 and Into the Grave for the right moment

A player who uses Shovel +2, Into the Grave and Turn Back as soon as they get them wins 20.7% of games. Using them only when the next player is about to win (1–2 cards left) gives the same result as the standard bot: 25.1%.

An attack card slows an opponent down most when they are about to finish. Played early, it only makes the next player draw a card or two. With stacking on (a room setting, on by default), a +2 in your hand is also a shield: when a +2 hits you, you put yours on top, grow the penalty and pass it on.

3. When you play a wild card, pick the colour you hold most

A player who picks the colour at random after a Ghost or Curse +4 wins 21.6% of games, against 24.9% for the standard player, who picks the colour they hold most. After the wild card, most of your hand stays playable, which lowers the chance that you will have to draw.

Habits that made no difference

Two common habits did not change the result. Playing low numbers first (23.9%) and changing colour whenever possible (24.4%) differ from the standard player by no more than luck can explain. Hortlak has no points: the first player to empty their hand wins, and the rest are ranked by how many cards they have left. So it does not matter whether you play the 9 or the 2 first; what matters is still having a playable card every time your turn comes.

Is playing first an advantage?

A little. In a two-player game, the player who goes first wins 52.8% of games. The edge shrinks as players are added: with eight players, the first player wins 14.6%, against a fair share of 12.5%. On Mezarpoly the first player is chosen at random every game.

How many moves does a game take?

Move: one player's turn (playing or drawing a card). More players make for a longer game, but fewer moves per player: the game ends when the first player finishes, and at a crowded table it is more likely that one of them gets a lucky hand. The chance of having no playable card when your turn comes is highest with two players (28.5%) and lowest with eight (20.7%).

Don't forget to say HORTLAK!

If you don't say HORTLAK! when you play your second-to-last card, anyone can catch you before the next player plays or draws, and you draw 2 penalty cards. We could not measure this in the simulation, because bots play without waiting, so the window to catch closes at once. At a real table, two cards set a nearly finished hand back several turns. Pressing the button takes a second.

Summary

• Keep wild cards for last. This is the biggest difference: the win rate drops from 24.9% to 17.6%.
• Use +2 and Into the Grave when the next player is about to win. Using them early drops the rate to 20.7%.
• Pick the wild colour you hold most.
• Don't worry about playing low or high numbers first. There are no points, so it makes no difference.
• Say HORTLAK! when you are down to two cards.

Method and limits

• The games were played with the Hortlak rules engine that runs on the Mezarpoly server: a 110-card deck, 7-card starting hands, stacking on. 78,000 games in total: the habit experiments at a four-player table, and the length measurements with 2–8 players, 6,000 games for each player count.
• The opponents were bots. Rates against people may differ, but the direction (keep wild cards, save attacks for the right moment) should hold.

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